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@ARTICLE{2026ESE....10.8599N,
       author = {{Nawaz}, Ayesha and {Alfio}, Maria Rosaria and {Casarci}, Maurizio and {DanieleFiorese}, Gaetano and {Hoteit}, Hussein and {Balacco}, Gabriella},
        title = "{Integrating Meteorological and GRACE-Based Indices to Assess Groundwater Drought Under Climate Change in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Basins}",
      journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
     keywords = {Precipitation, Temperature, SPI, SPEI, GRACE, Future projection, Earth Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience},
         year = 2026,
        month = nov,
       volume = {10},
       number = {7},
        pages = {8599-8618},
     abstract = "{Groundwater is a vital resource for socio-economic sustainability ye is
        increasingly threatened by climate change and rising
        anthropogenic pressures. Lebanon, and particularly the Al Assi
        River Basin (ARB), experiences recurrent droughts, but limited
        meteorological and groundwater observations hinder effective
        water resources monitoring and management. This study employs
        satellite-derived datasets to investigate the relationship
        between hydrological and hydrogeological drought indicators
        across Lebanon, with emphasis on the ARB. The Standardized
        Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation and
        Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were computed from CHIRPS
        precipitation and CHIRTS-ERA5 temperature data at multiple
        accumulation periods. Groundwater drought was quantified using
        the Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI), derived from GRACE
        terrestrial water storage anomalies. SPI, SPEI, and GGDI were
        harmonized at a 10 km resolution, and correlation analyses,
        including lagged correlations, were conducted to examine their
        temporal relationship. Results show that SPEI at 18-month
        accumulation exhibits the highest correlation with GGDI (R
        {\ensuremath{\approx}} 0.70) at zero lag, reflecting the
        response of the multi-layered ARB aquifer system. Future SPEI
        projections were derived using bias-corrected outputs from the
        CNRM-ALADIN53 regional climate model under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
        scenarios. Using the regression model resulting from the
        strongest correlation, future GGDI projections were generated,
        highlighting a progressive increase in drought-affected areas,
        with the most severe groundwater deficits expected under RCP 8.5
        by the late 21st century. These findings underscore the need for
        integrated water-resource management that combines climate-
        informed planning, satellite-based monitoring, and strengthened
        in-situ hydrogeological networks to improve resilience to future
        climatic extremes in data-scarce regions.
        \textbackslash\textbackslashThis study assesses how
        meteorological drought propagates into groundwater systems under
        climate change in data-scarce Mediterranean regions, with a
        specific focus on Lebanon and the Al Assi River Basin. The
        analysis integrates satellite-derived precipitation (CHIRPS),
        temperature (CHIRTS-ERA5), and GRACE-based terrestrial water
        storage anomalies to overcome the absence of in-situ
        hydrometeorological and groundwater records. Meteorological
        drought indices (SPI and SPEI) were computed at multiple
        accumulation periods, while the GRACE-derived Groundwater
        Drought Index (GGDI) was used to characterize hydrogeological
        drought conditions. Correlation analyses were conducted to
        identify the most robust proxy for groundwater drought,
        revealing that SPEI-18 displays the strongest spatial and
        temporal correspondence with GGDI, reaching up to 97\% high-
        correlation coverage in the ARB at zero lag. Bias-corrected
        climate projections from the CNRM-ALADIN53 regional model (RCP
        4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to generate future SPEI-18 and GGDI
        scenarios for three-time horizons (2030--2050, 2060--2080, 2080
        --2100). Results show a progressive intensification of both
        meteorological and groundwater drought throughout the 21st
        century, with the most severe declines projected under RCP 8.5.
        Drought-affected areas expand substantially, while groundwater
        drought classes shift toward higher frequency and severity. The
        findings underscore that satellite-based indicators offer a
        reliable framework for monitoring groundwater stress where
        observational networks are limited. Moreover, the study
        highlights the urgent need for integrated, climate-responsive
        water-resource management strategies to safeguard long-term
        water security in Lebanon and similar data-limited Mediterranean
        basins.}",
          doi = {10.1007/s41748-026-01085-8},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026ESE....10.8599N},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}