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@ARTICLE{2026EaFut..1408223S,
       author = {{Senigalliesi}, V. and {Cherchi}, A. and {Gelsinari}, S. and {Alessandri}, A.},
        title = "{Drivers of Water Resource Changes Over the Mediterranean Climate Regions of the Northern Hemisphere}",
      journal = {Earth's Future},
     keywords = {Mediterranean climate regions, GRACE/GRACE-FO, total water storage, water availability decline, climate change impacts},
         year = 2026,
        month = jul,
       volume = {14},
       number = {7},
          eid = {e2026EF008223},
        pages = {e2026EF008223},
     abstract = "{Mediterranean Climate Regions (MCRs) are water-limited areas highly
        sensitive to global warming and hydroclimatic change. However,
        long-term declines and interannual variability in water
        availability, as well as their climate drivers, remain poorly
        understood. This study exploits the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite
        observations of Total Water Storage (TWS) spanning 2002─2023 to
        investigate TWS variability and its drivers in the Euro-
        Mediterranean (Euromed) and the Western United States (WUS)
        MCRs. We apply a multiple linear regression (MLR) model on
        temperature, total precipitation and two metrics capturing
        complementary precipitation features: Intensity (above 95th
        Percentile; IPA95P) and Intermittency of storms above 5 mm
        (MDDA5). The MLR model explains 64\% of observed TWS variability
        across Northern Hemisphere MCRs. While temperature and
        precipitation are the primary drivers of the explained TWS
        variance (contributing to 37\% and 36\%, respectively), IPA95P
        and MDDA5 explain a smaller yet non-negligible fraction (up to
        15\%), with their effects concentrated in specific regions.
        Precipitation primarily drives interannual TWS variability,
        whereas increasing temperature governs the long-term decline.
        Temperature-driven TWS loss rates reach up to
        {\ensuremath{-}}1.2 mm/year in Euromed and {\ensuremath{-}}0.9
        mm/year in WUS, corresponding to TWS sensitivities per degree of
        warming of up to {\ensuremath{-}}25 mm/{\textdegree}C in North
        Africa, {\ensuremath{-}}34 mm/{\textdegree}C in East Euromed and
        {\ensuremath{-}}36 mm/{\textdegree}C in South WUS. Under the
        intermediate SSP2-4.5 scenario, projected TWS declines by 2100
        reach {\ensuremath{-}}60 mm in North Africa, {\ensuremath{-}}84
        mm in East Euromed, and {\ensuremath{-}}94 mm in South WUS
        relative to the 1995─2014. These results reveal critical
        vulnerabilities in MCRs, where warming-induced drying may
        exacerbate transitions toward a more arid climate.}",
          doi = {10.1029/2026EF008223},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026EaFut..1408223S},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}