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@ARTICLE{2026GeoJI.245..053Y,
       author = {{Yu}, Nan and {Wang}, Jinghuan and {Li}, Jiancheng},
        title = "{Improved geocentre motion estimates through the weighted combination of GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions and OBP models}",
      journal = {Geophysical Journal International},
     keywords = {Time-series analysis, Radar Interferometry Reference systems, Satellite gravity, Time variable gravity},
         year = 2026,
        month = may,
       volume = {245},
       number = {2},
          eid = {ggag053},
        pages = {ggag053},
     abstract = "{Geocentre motion, defined as the displacement of Earth's centre of mass
        relative to its centre of figure, is crucial for maintaining the
        International Terrestrial Reference Frame origin and quantifying
        large-scale mass redistribution. However, whether observing
        geocentre motion by tracking satellite orbits or inferring it
        using geophysical models, accurately acquiring such subtle
        motions imposes stringent requirements on the consistency and
        precision of both tracking data and geophysical models. This
        study improves geocentre motion estimates derived from the
        combination of GRACE/GRACE-FO time-variable gravity (TVG) and
        Ocean Bottom Pressure (OBP) models (the GRACE-OBP method) in two
        ways. First, we apply a forward modelling technique to mitigate
        land─ocean leakage in GRACE/GRACE-FO TVG fields, which
        demonstrably outperforms empirical coastline buffer-zone
        corrections in controlled simulation experiments. Secondly, we
        introduce the Bayesian Three-Cornered Hat (BTCH) method to
        optimally combine geocentre series derived from multiple GRACE
        solutions and two independent OBP models (Estimating the
        Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II and Max Planck
        Institute Ocean Model), producing an improved geocentre product
        without requiring a ground-truth reference. Uncertainty analysis
        shows that the noise level is governed primarily by the GRACE
        solution, and that BTCH provides a clearer advantage over equal-
        weighted averaging when the number of input series is limited,
        reducing the noise level by about 30 per cent. After restoring
        atmospheric and oceanic contributions, our improved geocentre
        series shows good agreement with the CSR Satellite Laser
        Ranging-derived geocentre product. Although uncertainty levels
        vary among individual solutions, the estimated annual and
        secular trend signals are broadly consistent and show limited
        sensitivity to the choice of GRACE TVG solution and OBP model.
        Using the improved geocentre series, we revisit the annual
        geocentre oscillation and its drivers; the results indicate that
        cryospheric mass variability and land─ocean mass exchange (i.e.
        sea-level fingerprints) provide non-negligible contributions to
        the annual geocentre cycle and improve consistency with
        observations. Finally, the improved geocentre series yields the
        lowest uncertainty in degree-1 mass variations, with a global
        RMS of 0.55 mm. Incorporating these degree-1 terms into mass
        budget assessments yields secular trends of 38.8 Gt
        yr$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and 0.57 mm
        yr$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ for global mean ocean mass,
        highlighting the need for accurate geocentre corrections to
        support reliable long-term climate monitoring.}",
          doi = {10.1093/gji/ggag053},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026GeoJI.245..053Y},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}