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@ARTICLE{2026JHyMe..27.1203Y,
       author = {{Yu}, Xiaohan and {Zeng}, Xiankui and {Gui}, Dongwei and {Wang}, Dong and {Wu}, Jichun},
        title = "{Estimating the Composition of Basin Runoff Based on Water Balance Analysis and Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis}",
      journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
         year = 2026,
        month = aug,
       volume = {27},
       number = {8},
        pages = {1203-1225},
     abstract = "{The basin runoff consists of three components: surface water runoff,
        baseflow runoff, and groundwater runoff. Accurately estimating
        the components of basin runoff can deepen our understanding of
        hydrological processes and enhance the reliability of water
        balance analysis. However, estimating runoff composition in
        large-scale basins with sparse ground observations remains a
        challenge, especially for groundwater runoff. This study
        proposed a framework using water balance equations and
        streamflow routing models to estimate the runoff composition.
        The hydrometeorological data used include fifth generation
        European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
        atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) precipitation data, Global Land
        Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) data, Gravity Recovery and
        Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, and Global Land Data
        Assimilation System (GLDAS) surface runoff data. Moreover,
        Markov chain Monte Carlo was applied to calibrate the parameter
        of streamflow routing models. Taking the headstream area of
        Tarim River basin (TRB) as the study area, the results
        demonstrated that the baseflow series during the year can be
        either positive or negative. During 2003-17, the average
        duration of surface water recharging groundwater is 4.8 month
        yr$^{-1}$, while groundwater recharging surface water is 7.2
        months. Nevertheless, the average amount of surface water
        recharging groundwater is 16.6 {\texttimes} {}10$^{9}$ m$^{3}$
        yr$^{-1}$, while groundwater recharging surface water is 9.3
        {\texttimes} {}10$^{9}$ m$^{3}$ yr$^{-1}$. Groundwater runoff is
        the primary component (88.9\%) of the total runoff of study
        area, with surface runoff (7.9\%) and base flow (3.2\%) as the
        second and third components, respectively. Thus, this study
        provides a feasible approach for estimating runoff composition
        in large-scale areas with sparse ground observations.}",
          doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-25-0218.1},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026JHyMe..27.1203Y},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}