Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner
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Fowler, Keirnan, Knoben, Wouter, Peel, Murray, Peterson, Tim, Ryu, Dongryeol, Saft, Margarita, Seo, Ki-Weon, and Western, Andrew, 2020. Many Commonly Used Rainfall-Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections. Water Resources Research, 56(5):e2019WR025286, doi:10.1029/2019WR025286.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2020WRR....5625286F,
author = {{Fowler}, Keirnan and {Knoben}, Wouter and {Peel}, Murray and {Peterson}, Tim and {Ryu}, Dongryeol and {Saft}, Margarita and {Seo}, Ki-Weon and {Western}, Andrew},
title = "{Many Commonly Used Rainfall-Runoff Models Lack Long, Slow Dynamics: Implications for Runoff Projections}",
journal = {Water Resources Research},
keywords = {rainfall-runoff modeling, drought, climate change},
year = 2020,
month = may,
volume = {56},
number = {5},
eid = {e2019WR025286},
pages = {e2019WR025286},
abstract = "{Evidence suggests that catchment state variables such as groundwater can
exhibit multiyear trends. This means that their state may
reflect not only recent climatic conditions but also climatic
conditions in past years or even decades. Here we demonstrate
that five commonly used conceptual ``bucket'' rainfall-runoff
models are unable to replicate multiyear trends exhibited by
natural systems during the ``Millennium Drought'' in south-east
Australia. This causes an inability to extrapolate to different
climatic conditions, leading to poor performance in split sample
tests. Simulations are examined from five models applied in 38
catchments, then compared with groundwater data from 19 bores
and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data for two
geographic regions. Whereas the groundwater and Gravity Recovery
and Climate Experiment data decrease from high to low values
gradually over the duration of the 13-year drought, the model
storages go from high to low values in a typical seasonal cycle.
This is particularly the case in the drier, flatter catchments.
Once the drought begins, there is little room for decline in the
simulated storage, because the model ``buckets'' are already
``emptying'' on a seasonal basis. Since the effects of sustained
dry conditions cannot accumulate within these models, we argue
that they should not be used for runoff projections in a drying
climate. Further research is required to (a) improve conceptual
rainfall-runoff models, (b) better understand circumstances in
which multiyear trends in state variables occur, and (c)
investigate links between these multiyear trends and changes in
rainfall-runoff relationships in the context of a changing
climate.}",
doi = {10.1029/2019WR025286},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020WRR....5625286F},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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