Thu Apr 10, F. Flechtner
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Forootan, Ehsan, Kosary, Mona, Farzaneh, Saeed, Kodikara, Timothy, Vielberg, Kristin, Fernandez-Gomez, Isabel, Borries, Claudia, and Schumacher, Maike, 2022. Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements. Scientific Reports, 12:2095, doi:10.1038/s41598-022-05952-y.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2022NatSR..12.2095F,
author = {{Forootan}, Ehsan and {Kosary}, Mona and {Farzaneh}, Saeed and {Kodikara}, Timothy and {Vielberg}, Kristin and {Fernandez-Gomez}, Isabel and {Borries}, Claudia and {Schumacher}, Maike},
title = "{Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements}",
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = 2022,
month = jan,
volume = {12},
eid = {2095},
pages = {2095},
abstract = "{Global estimation of thermospheric neutral density (TND) on various
altitudes is important for geodetic and space weather
applications. This is typically provided by models, however, the
quality of these models is limited due to their imperfect
structure and the sensitivity of their parameters to the
calibration period. Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter
(EnKF)-based calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) technique
that updates the model's states and simultaneously calibrates
its key parameters. Its application is demonstrated using the
TND estimates from on-board accelerometer measurements, e.g.,
those of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
mission (at {\ensuremath{\sim}}410 ? km altitude), as
observation, and the frequently used empirical model
NRLMSISE-00. The C/DA is applied here to re-calibrate the model
parameters including those controlling the influence of solar
radiation and geomagnetic activity as well as those related to
the calculation of exospheric temperature. The resulting model,
called here `C/DA-NRLMSISE-00', is then used to now-cast TNDs
and individual neutral mass compositions for 3 h, where the
model with calibrated parameters is run again during the
assimilation period. C/DA-NRLMSISE-00 is also used to forecast
the next 21 h, where no new observations are introduced. These
forecasts are unique because they are available globally and on
various altitudes (300-600 km). To introduce the impact of the
thermosphere on estimating ionospheric parameters, the coupled
physics-based model TIE-GCM is run by replacing the O2, O1, He
and neutral temperature estimates of the C/DA-NRLMSISE-00. Then,
the non-assimilated outputs of electron density (Ne) and total
electron content (TEC) are validated against independent
measurements. Assessing the forecasts of TNDs with those along
the Swarm-A ({\ensuremath{\sim}}467 ? km), -B
({\ensuremath{\sim}}521 ? km), and -C ({\ensuremath{\sim}}467 ?
km) orbits shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is
considerably reduced by 51, 57 and 54\%, respectively. We find
improvement of 30.92\% for forecasting Ne and 26.48\% for TEC
compared to the radio occulation and global ionosphere maps
(GIM), respectively. The presented C/DA approach is recommended
for the short-term global multi-level thermosphere and enhanced
ionosphere forecasting applications.}",
doi = {10.1038/s41598-022-05952-y},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022NatSR..12.2095F},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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