Thu Apr 10, F. Flechtner
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Yin, Jiabo, Guo, Shenglian, Yang, Yan, Chen, Jie, Gu, Lei, Wang, Jun, He, Shaokun, Wu, Boyang, and Xiong, Jinghua, 2022. Projection of droughts and their socioeconomic exposures based on terrestrial water storage anomaly over China. Science China Earth Sciences, 65(9):1772–1787, doi:10.1007/s11430-021-9927-x.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2022ScChD..65.1772Y,
author = {{Yin}, Jiabo and {Guo}, Shenglian and {Yang}, Yan and {Chen}, Jie and {Gu}, Lei and {Wang}, Jun and {He}, Shaokun and {Wu}, Boyang and {Xiong}, Jinghua},
title = "{Projection of droughts and their socioeconomic exposures based on terrestrial water storage anomaly over China}",
journal = {Science China Earth Sciences},
keywords = {Climate change, Terrestrial water storage, Drought, Gravity satellite, Socioeconomic},
year = 2022,
month = sep,
volume = {65},
number = {9},
pages = {1772-1787},
abstract = "{Global warming has altered the thermodynamic and dynamic environments of
the climate system, thus affecting the energy budget and water
cycle process of the land-atmosphere system. Under changes in
key hydrological elements such as precipitation, runoff, and
terrestrial water storage, future drought variation remains a
complex question. Existing studies have utilized terrestrial
water storage anomaly (TWSA) in drought monitoring and
assessment, but they usually focused on either drought duration
or intensity, overlooking the multi-faced attributes of droughts
as well as their socioeconomic impacts under a non-stationary
condition. In this study, we first identify dry/wet conditions
over China using GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations, and then
evaluate the feedback effects of humidity and energy factors
(e.g., sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, atmospheric
relative humidity, and convective available potential energy) to
drought events. Future changes in TWSA and dry/wet conditions
are projected by eight Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs) under three shared
socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), with their biases corrected by a
trend-preserving quantile mapping method. The time-varying
Copula function of drought duration and intensity is constructed
by a moving windows method, and future bivariate drought risks
are quantified with the most likely realization method. The
population and GDP affected by increasing drought risks are
finally quantified based on the SSPs data. It is found that the
land-atmosphere coupling effects closely interact with drought
evolution, and the uneven distribution of water resources is
projected to be further aggravated, with most areas of China
will be threatened by continuous drying tendency. By the end of
the century, the duration of moderate, severe and exceptional
droughts in some regions of China will double, and the drought
intensity will increase by over 80\%. For the 50-year bivariate
droughts during the historical period, their occurrence may
increase by 5{\textendash}10 times in several regions, and might
affect about 35{\textendash}55\% of China's population and GDP
at the end of 21st century.}",
doi = {10.1007/s11430-021-9927-x},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022ScChD..65.1772Y},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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