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SODA – A tool to predict storm-induced orbit decays for low Earth-orbiting satellites

Krauss, Sandro, Drescher, Lukas, Temmer, Manuela, Suesser-Rechberger, Barbara, Strasser, Andreas, and Kroisz, Sophia, 2024. SODA – A tool to predict storm-induced orbit decays for low Earth-orbiting satellites. Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 14:23, doi:10.1051/swsc/2024022.

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@ARTICLE{2024JSWSC..14...23K,
       author = {{Krauss}, Sandro and {Drescher}, Lukas and {Temmer}, Manuela and {Suesser-Rechberger}, Barbara and {Strasser}, Andreas and {Kroisz}, Sophia},
        title = "{SODA {\textendash} A tool to predict storm-induced orbit decays for low Earth-orbiting satellites}",
      journal = {Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate},
     keywords = {Forecasting, Orbit decay, Geomagnetic storms, CME, ESA Space Safety Programme},
         year = 2024,
        month = aug,
       volume = {14},
          eid = {23},
        pages = {23},
     abstract = "{Due to the rapidly increasing technological progress in the last
        decades, the issue of space weather and its influences on our
        everyday life has more and more importance. Today, satellite-
        based navigation plays a key role in aviation, logistic, and
        transportation systems. With the strong rise of the current
        solar cycle 25 the number and intensity of solar eruptions
        increasesd. The forecasting tool SODA (Satellite Orbit DecAy) is
        based on an interdisciplinary analysis of space geodetic
        observations and solar wind in-situ measurements. It allows the
        prediction of the impact of in-situ measured interplanetary
        coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) on the altitude of low Earth-
        orbiting satellites at 490 km with a lead time of about 20 h,
        which is defined as the time difference between measuring the
        minimum B$_{z}$ component and the orbit decay reaching its
        maximum. Additionally, it classifies the severeness of the
        expected geomagnetic storm in the form of the Space Weather
        G{\textendash}scale from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
        Administration (NOAA). For the establishment and validation of
        SODA, we examined 360 ICME events over a period of 21 years.
        Appropriated variations in the thermospheric neutral mass
        density, were derived mainly from measurements of the Gravity
        Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission.
        Related changes in the interplanetary magnetic field component
        B$_{z}$ were investigated from real-time measurements using data
        from spacecraft located at the Lagrange point L1. The analysis
        of the ICME-induced orbit decays and the interplanetary magnetic
        field showed a strong correlation as well as a time delay
        between the ICME and the associated thermospheric response. The
        derived results are implemented in the forecasting tool SODA,
        which is integrated into the Space Safety Program (Ionospheric
        Weather Expert Service Center; I.161) of the European Space
        Agency (ESA).}",
          doi = {10.1051/swsc/2024022},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2024JSWSC..14...23K},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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