Publications related to the GRACE Missions (no abstracts)

• Sorted by Date • Sorted by Last Name of First Author •

Trends and seasonality of 2019--2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations

Pendergrass, Drew C., Jacob, Daniel J., Balasus, Nicholas, Estrada, Lucas, Varon, Daniel J., East, James D., He, Megan, Mooring, Todd A., Penn, Elise, Nesser, Hannah, and Worden, John R., 2025. Trends and seasonality of 2019--2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 25(21):14353–14369, doi:10.5194/acp-25-14353-2025.

Downloads

• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System  • by the DOI System  •

@ARTICLE{2025ACP....2514353P,
       author = {{Pendergrass}, Drew C. and {Jacob}, Daniel J. and {Balasus}, Nicholas and {Estrada}, Lucas and {Varon}, Daniel J. and {East}, James D. and {He}, Megan and {Mooring}, Todd A. and {Penn}, Elise and {Nesser}, Hannah and {Worden}, John R.},
        title = "{Trends and seasonality of 2019--2023 global methane emissions inferred from a localized ensemble transform Kalman filter (CHEEREIO v1.3.1) applied to TROPOMI satellite observations}",
      journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry \& Physics},
         year = 2025,
        month = nov,
       volume = {25},
       number = {21},
        pages = {14353-14369},
     abstract = "{We use 2019─2023 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane
        to quantify global methane emissions at monthly 2{\textdegree}
        {\texttimes} 2.5{\textdegree} resolution with a localized
        ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) inversion, deriving
        monthly posterior estimates of emissions and year-to-year
        evolution. We apply two alternative wetland inventories
        (WetCHARTs and LPJ-wsl) as prior estimates. Our best posterior
        estimate of global emissions shows a surge from 560 Tg
        a$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ in 2019 to 587─592 Tg
        a$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ in 2020─2021 before declining to 572─570
        Tg a$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ in 2022─2023. Posterior emissions
        reproduce the observed 2019─2023 trends in methane
        concentrations at NOAA surface sites and from TROPOMI with
        minimal regional bias. Consistent with previous studies, we
        attribute the 2020─2021 methane surge to a 14 Tg
        a$^{{\ensuremath{-}}1}$ increase in emissions from sub-Saharan
        Africa but find that previous attribution of this surge to
        anthropogenic sources (livestock) reflects errors in the assumed
        wetland spatial distribution. Correlation with GRACE-FO
        inundation data suggests that wetlands in South Sudan played a
        major role in the 2020─2021 surge but are poorly represented in
        wetland models. By contrast, boreal wetland emissions decreased
        over 2020─2023 consistent with drying measured by GRACE-FO. We
        find that the global seasonality of methane emissions is driven
        by northern tropical wetlands and peaks in September, later than
        the July wetland model peak and consistent with GRACE-FO. We
        find no global seasonality in oil/gas emissions, but US fields
        show elevated cold season emissions that could reflect increased
        leakage.}",
          doi = {10.5194/acp-25-14353-2025},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025ACP....2514353P},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

Generated by bib2html_grace.pl (written by Patrick Riley modified for this page by Volker Klemann) on Mon Dec 15, 2025 18:11:59

---

Mon Dec 15, F. Flechtner