Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner
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Gunes, Ozge and Aydin, Cuneyt, 2025. Identifying six-year cycle in GRACE total water storage time-series with a model test algorithm and assessing its influence on trend estimates in Türkiye region over a twenty year period. Advances in Space Research, 76(8):4183–4193, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2025.07.071.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2025AdSpR..76.4183G,
author = {{Gunes}, Ozge and {Aydin}, Cuneyt},
title = "{Identifying six-year cycle in GRACE total water storage time-series with a model test algorithm and assessing its influence on trend estimates in T{\"u}rkiye region over a twenty year period}",
journal = {Advances in Space Research},
keywords = {GRACE, Hydrological Variation, Additional Signal, 6-year cycle, TWS},
year = 2025,
month = oct,
volume = {76},
number = {8},
pages = {4183-4193},
abstract = "{The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission,
launched in 2002, has significantly advanced our understanding
of temporal variations in Earth's gravity field. Its remarkable
sensitivity to hydrological changes on land and fluctuations in
ocean bottom pressure has led to its widespread use in
hydrology, geodesy, glaciology, and oceanography. Hydrological
variations on Earth's surface are monitored through total water
storage (TWS) anomalies expressed in equivalent water thickness.
It has been reported that a TWS time-series consists of a long-
term periodic signal, termed 6-year cycle. We examine this cycle
in the TWS time-series of global mascon solutions provided by
the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), covering the period from
April 2002 to May 2023. To identify this cycle, we propose an
algorithm that searches for the best fitting periodic signal
among the possible ones to the TWS time-series based on the
F-model test. This algorithm is proven to be successful with an
error of around 1 year even if the time-series data is burdened
with the random walk noise. Applying this procedure to the GSFC
mascon TWS time-series, we identified an additional signal with
a global mean period of 6.4 years. We further investigated its
influence on trend rate estimates over the T{\"u}rkiye Region.
Enhancing harmonic regression model with the identified periodic
signals in the region reduces the energy of the colored noise in
the data as well as trend rate uncertainty by up to 33 \%. This
is a significant improvement of considering the 6-year cycle
while investigating the TWS signal in the region.}",
doi = {10.1016/j.asr.2025.07.071},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025AdSpR..76.4183G},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner