Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner
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Schlaak, Marius and Pail, Roland, 2025. Resolving climate-related mass transport trends: a parameter model comparison using closed-loop simulations of current and future satellite gravity missions. Earth, Planets and Space, 77(1):97, doi:10.1186/s40623-025-02239-0.
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@ARTICLE{2025EPS...77...97S,
author = {{Schlaak}, Marius and {Pail}, Roland},
title = "{Resolving climate-related mass transport trends: a parameter model comparison using closed-loop simulations of current and future satellite gravity missions}",
journal = {Earth, Planets and Space},
keywords = {Satellite gravimetry, MAGIC, NGGM next generation gravity mission, Parameter model, Closed-loop simulation},
year = 2025,
month = jul,
volume = {77},
number = {1},
eid = {97},
pages = {97},
abstract = "{The existing observation record of satellite gravity missions is already
closing in on the minimum time series of 30 years needed to
decouple natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms according
to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The launch of the
next generation of gravity field missions [Gravity Recovery and
Climate Experiment (GRACE)-Continuity, Next Generation Gravity
Mission] is expected within this decade. These missions and
their combination (Mass-Change and Geosciences International
Constellation [MAGIC)] are setting high anticipation for an
enhanced monitoring capability that will significantly improve
the spatial and temporal resolution of gravity observations.
This study investigates and compares the performance of three
different trend estimation strategies for the first time in
multi-decadal numerical closed-loop simulations of satellite
gravimetry constellations. The considered satellite
constellations are a GRACE-type in-line single pair mission and
a MAGIC double pair mission with realistic noise assumptions for
the key payload, tidal, and non-tidal background model errors.
The parameter models used in this study consist of monthly
solutions (f0), co-estimation of monthly and trend parameters
(f1), and the direct estimation of trend and annual amplitudes
(f2). Thirty years of modeled mass transport time series of
components of the terrestrial water storage, obtained from
future climate projections, form the gravity signal used in the
simulations. Our results show the potential of MAGIC's advanced
observation system in estimating a long-term trend. After 10
years, the global root-mean-square error of the trend estimates
for the f0 parameter model improves from a single pair
performance of 59.6{\textendash}1.2 mm/yr for a double pair
constellation. While the improved observation system mainly
contributes to the higher resolution, direct trend estimation
strategies can achieve minor but visible improvements. Since all
three parameter models show globally comparable results, they
are further analyzed regionally by dividing the world into 206
hydrological basins. Small basins and areas with low signal-to-
noise ratio show slight improvements in the residuals. For
example, after 10 years of observation, a single pair shows 1
mm/yr improvements for f2 compared to f0. Furthermore, the
regional analysis shows that a significant number of basins have
a higher signal-to-noise ratio than the global average. These
basins would benefit from trend estimates of higher degree and
order, which is possible by directly estimating the trend
coefficients with f1 or f2, but not with the trend estimation
from monthly solutions (f0).}",
doi = {10.1186/s40623-025-02239-0},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025EP&S...77...97S},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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