Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner
• Sorted by Date • Sorted by Last Name of First Author •
Villaruel, AJ, Seck, Alimatou, and Schultz, Cherie, 2025. Evaluating time-lagged relationships between groundwater storage and river discharge using GRACE-based data: insights from the Potomac Basin. Environmental Research Communications, 7(7):075003, doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ade36f.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2025ERCom...7g5003V,
author = {{Villaruel}, AJ and {Seck}, Alimatou and {Schultz}, Cherie},
title = "{Evaluating time-lagged relationships between groundwater storage and river discharge using GRACE-based data: insights from the Potomac Basin}",
journal = {Environmental Research Communications},
keywords = {GRACE, groundwater drought indicator, groundwater-streamflow interactions, low streamflow, time-lag analysis, Potomac River Basin},
year = 2025,
month = jul,
volume = {7},
number = {7},
eid = {075003},
pages = {075003},
abstract = "{This study evaluates the utility of a recently available GRACE-based
groundwater drought index (GDI) in supporting regional water
supply management, with application to the Potomac River Basin,
in the U.S. Middle Atlantic region. As the primary drinking
water source for the Washington Metropolitan Area (WMA),
effective management of the Potomac River's resources is
critical, especially in the context of climate change, with the
expected increase in severity and frequency of extreme events.
Our analysis integrates 22 years of data, including GRACE-based
groundwater storage (GWS) index estimates, river discharge (Q)
measurements, and meteorological records, to investigate trends
and predictive relationships between past GWS, as determined by
the GRACE-based drought index, and streamflow. Seasonal Mann-
Kendall trend analyses consistently identified severe declining
trends in groundwater storage (GWS), as well as moderate
declines in minimum streamflow and well water levels over the
past 22 years. Granger Causality (GC) tests revealed significant
time lags of 49 weeks to 22 months at weekly and monthly scales,
respectively depending on a region's hydrogeomorphic
characteristics. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models and Forecast
Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) highlighted the variable
contributions of precipitation and temperature to the GWS-Q
relationship, revealing a strong autoregressive component of Q,
but also reveal that GWS plays an important role, and this role
increases with time. These findings underscore the
interconnectedness of groundwater and surface water systems and
the importance of integrated predictive models to enhance water
management strategies. Incorporating GRACE-based seasonal
groundwater forecasts into drought preparedness tools could
bolster efforts to mitigate regional climate change impacts and
improve the resilience of water resources in the Potomac River
Basin. While practical use of native GRACE data has been
challenging for local, small-scale applications, this study
demonstrates the utility of the GRACE-based GDI in forecasting
low flows and informing regional water resource management
decisions during droughts.}",
doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ade36f},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025ERCom...7g5003V},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner