Mon Dec 15, F. Flechtner
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Rateb, Ashraf, Scanlon, Bridget R., and Sun, Alexander, 2025. Global co-occurrence of warm temperature extremes and terrestrial water storage deficits. Environmental Research Letters, 20(9):094010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adf2be10.22541/essoar.174346931.18465151/v1.
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@ARTICLE{2025ERL....20i4010R,
author = {{Rateb}, Ashraf and {Scanlon}, Bridget R. and {Sun}, Alexander},
title = "{Global co-occurrence of warm temperature extremes and terrestrial water storage deficits}",
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
keywords = {GRACE satellites, total water storage, heat waves, compounding extremes},
year = 2025,
month = sep,
volume = {20},
number = {9},
eid = {094010},
pages = {094010},
abstract = "{Compounding climate extremes threaten ecosystems, agriculture, and
public health, with intensification driven by a warming climate
and increasing human interventions. However, the global linkage
between temperature extremes and total water storage (TWS)
deficits remains insufficiently explored. Here, we analyzed 22
years (2002{\textendash}2024) of Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-FO satellite data to examine the
spatiotemporal coincidence of elevated temperatures and TWS
deficits and explore their bidirectional predictability. We find
that low TWS episodes frequently coincide with or lag
temperature extremes by about one month in major
land{\textendash}atmosphere coupling hotspots, including
equatorial, subtropical, and mid-latitude regions, possibly due
to enhanced evapotranspiration and soil moisture reductions.
Pre-existing TWS deficits appear to intensify and prolong
temperature extremes by reducing latent heat flux and increasing
sensible heat flux, potentially creating feedback processes that
amplify drought and thermal stress; however, these mechanisms
warrant further investigation. Statistical tests confirm that
these co-occurrences are unlikely to be random, whereas Granger
predictability analysis demonstrates that temperature anomalies
improve forecasts of subsequent TWS extremes in critical
regions. Overall, our results underscore the vulnerability of
water-limited areas under climate change and highlight the value
of continuous TWS monitoring to better predict and mitigate the
impacts of temperature extremes. They further emphasize the
urgency of integrated water-resource management and adaptation
strategies in regions prone to prolonged compound extremes.}",
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/adf2be10.22541/essoar.174346931.18465151/v1},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025ERL....20i4010R},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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