Mon Dec 15, F. Flechtner
• Sorted by Date • Sorted by Last Name of First Author •
Zhang, Kun, Huang, Yanshi, Wei, Fengsi, Zuo, Pingbing, Yang, Hao, Ji, Jinlong, and Chen, Zehao, 2025. Thermospheric density variations during extreme geomagnetic storms and their potential impact on the orbit of the China space station. Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, 12:1644152, doi:10.3389/fspas.2025.1644152.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2025FrASS..1244152Z,
author = {{Zhang}, Kun and {Huang}, Yanshi and {Wei}, Fengsi and {Zuo}, Pingbing and {Yang}, Hao and {Ji}, Jinlong and {Chen}, Zehao},
title = "{Thermospheric density variations during extreme geomagnetic storms and their potential impact on the orbit of the China space station}",
journal = {Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences},
keywords = {thermospheric density, geomagnetic storm, orbit decay, space weather, china space station},
year = 2025,
month = oct,
volume = {12},
eid = {1644152},
pages = {1644152},
abstract = "{Temporal variation and spatial distribution of the thermospheric density
can change significantly during geomagnetic storms. These
variations in thermospheric density enhance atmospheric drag,
posing risks to Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) spacecraft. Therefore,
studying the characteristics of intense storm-time thermospheric
density perturbations and orbit decay is crucial for practical
applications. In this study, neutral density was simulated for
the strongest magnetic storm events of solar cycles 24, 23, and
22, corresponding to minimum Dst indices of ‑234 nT (2015 St.
Patrick's Day storm), ‑442 nT (20 November 2003 storm), and ‑598
nT (1989 Quebec blackout storm). Four representative
thermospheric models (DTM-2020, JB 2008, NRLMSIS 2.0, and TIEGCM
2.0) were employed to evaluate their performance during extreme
geomagnetic storms by comparing simulated densities with
satellite observations from Swarm, CHAMP, and GRACE during the
November 2003 and March 2015 storm events. The results indicate
that the errors of all models exhibit larger errors in the main
and recovery phases, with a bias toward underestimation of
density during the main phase. It is important to note that no
thermospheric model is perfect and each model has its own
limitations, especially dealing with extreme space weather
events. Although JB2008 performs relatively well, it does not
maintain the best performance across all phases, and its
predictions still deviate from observations by at least 20\%.
Therefore, combining multiple model outputs is recommended for
extreme cases. Furthermore, these thermospheric models were
coupled with the High-Precision Orbit Propagator (HPOP) to
examine the orbital decay of the China Space Station (CSS,
{\ensuremath{\sim}}380{\textendash}400 km altitude) during these
events. The effects of drag on CSS during the strongest magnetic
storm events in the 24th, 23rd and 22nd solar cycles were
simulated. The orbital decay is about 233\%, 300\% and 266\%
higher than that in the quiet period, respectively. The reults
of this study might serve as a reference for spacecraft for
possible upcoming extreme magnetic storm events.}",
doi = {10.3389/fspas.2025.1644152},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025FrASS..1244152Z},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
Generated by
bib2html_grace.pl
(written by Patrick Riley
modified for this page by Volker Klemann) on
Mon Dec 15, 2025 18:11:59
GRACE-FO
Mon Dec 15, F. Flechtner