Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner
• Sorted by Date • Sorted by Last Name of First Author •
Gentilucci, Matteo, Younes, Hamed, Hadji, Rihab, Casagli, Nicola, and Pambianchi, Gilberto, 2025. Influence of land surface temperatures, precipitation, total water storage anomaly and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation anomaly, obtained from MODIS, IMERG and GRACE satellite products on wildfires in eastern Central Italy. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 46(14):5465–5499, doi:10.1080/01431161.2025.2522941.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2025IJRS...46.5465G,
author = {{Gentilucci}, Matteo and {Younes}, Hamed and {Hadji}, Rihab and {Casagli}, Nicola and {Pambianchi}, Gilberto},
title = "{Influence of land surface temperatures, precipitation, total water storage anomaly and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation anomaly, obtained from MODIS, IMERG and GRACE satellite products on wildfires in eastern Central Italy}",
journal = {International Journal of Remote Sensing},
keywords = {Fires, wildfires, MODIS, IMERG, multiple linear regression},
year = 2025,
month = jul,
volume = {46},
number = {14},
pages = {5465-5499},
abstract = "{Forest fires are increasingly frequent and pose a risk to the entire
ecosystem and also to subsequent hydrogeological risks that may
be amplified. Italy and the Mediterranean area are increasingly
affected by fires and in recent years they have dried up
abruptly due to extreme climatic conditions that increase the
number of continuous days without rainfall, as well as the
duration and intensity of heat waves that increase the risk of
wildfires. In this context, it is essential to implement
countermeasures in order to better plan the territory, by means
of monitoring tools that can guarantee optimal coverage of the
areas under investigation, assessing risk conditions. This
research was carried out using remote sensing products such as
Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and
Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) by
recording daily values of land surface temperature (LST),
precipitation, total water storage anomaly (TWSA) and the
fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation anomaly
(FAPAR), to explain the annual variance in the number of fires
and the amount of area affected by fire in eastern Central
Italy. The statistical technique adopted was multiple linear
regression (MLR), which identified the most influential
variables in defining the annual number of fires, Summer LST
showed a partial correlation values of 0.85, followed by
precipitation in April (-0.07) and November (-0.38), June TWSA
(-0.68), March FAPAR (0.78) and June FAPAR (-0.12), in addition
to a low value of collinearity between the variables. The model
obtained with MLR resulted in an 84\% explanation of variance, a
result inferred from the adjusted R-square. For the burned area,
the same variables were involved but produced a different
outcome, explaining 60\% of the variance. This suggests
potential for future predictive scenarios using more suitable
variables to assess fire spread.}",
doi = {10.1080/01431161.2025.2522941},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025IJRS...46.5465G},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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