Mon Dec 15, F. Flechtner
• Sorted by Date • Sorted by Last Name of First Author •
Middendorf, Klara, Dobslaw, Henryk, Jensen, Laura, and Eicker, Annette, 2025. Return Levels of Dry Extreme Events in Terrestrial Water Storage From Satellite Gravimetry and CMIP6 Global Coupled Climate Models. Journal of Geophysical Research (Solid Earth), 130(10):e2024JB031011, doi:10.1029/2024JB031011.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2025JGRB..13031011M,
author = {{Middendorf}, Klara and {Dobslaw}, Henryk and {Jensen}, Laura and {Eicker}, Annette},
title = "{Return Levels of Dry Extreme Events in Terrestrial Water Storage From Satellite Gravimetry and CMIP6 Global Coupled Climate Models}",
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research (Solid Earth)},
keywords = {GRACE, CMIP6, extreme events, climate models, generalized extreme value distribution, return levels},
year = 2025,
month = oct,
volume = {130},
number = {10},
eid = {e2024JB031011},
pages = {e2024JB031011},
abstract = "{Satellite gravimetry as realized with GRACE and GRACE-FO provides a
novel opportunity to study extreme deviations from annually
varying terrestrial water storage (TWS) in all continental areas
of our planet. By utilizing the generalized extreme value (GEV)
distribution, we estimate return levels for events that are
expected to happen once every 10 (i.e., 1-in-10) years. With two
GRACE-like reconstructions spanning over 40 and 114 years,
respectively, we show that the currently available data record
of 20 years is already sufficiently long to derive robust
estimates of those return levels. When contrasting the GRACE/-FO
results to model experiments from the CMIP6 archive extending
until the year 2100 by concatenating historical runs and climate
projections under the SSP5-8.5 socioeconomic pathway, we find
that (a) the multi-model median from CMIP6 has the overall best
agreement with the satellite data, thereby nicely confirming the
validity of a central assumption of many climate-related studies
that heavily rely on ensemble statistics. We also find that (b)
CMIP6 model runs contain only modest deviations of 1-in-10 years
return levels from the beginning of the 20th century when
compared to present-day, but predict stronger changes toward
more extreme return levels by the end of the 21st century. On
the other hand, we also find substantial differences between
satellite data and individual model experiments, which opens new
opportunities to inform, validate and/or calibrate numerical
climate models with satellite gravimetry data from GRACE, GRACE-
FO, and in future also GRACE-C.}",
doi = {10.1029/2024JB031011},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025JGRB..13031011M},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
Generated by
bib2html_grace.pl
(written by Patrick Riley
modified for this page by Volker Klemann) on
Mon Dec 15, 2025 18:11:59
GRACE-FO
Mon Dec 15, F. Flechtner