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Groundwater storage anomalies projection by optimized deep learning refines groundwater management in typical arid basins

Deng, Xiaoya, Wang, Guangyan, Han, Feifei, Gong, Yanming, Hao, Xingming, Zhang, Guangpeng, Zhang, Pei, and Shan, Qianjuan, 2025. Groundwater storage anomalies projection by optimized deep learning refines groundwater management in typical arid basins. Journal of Hydrology, 649:132452, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132452.

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@ARTICLE{2025JHyd..64932452D,
       author = {{Deng}, Xiaoya and {Wang}, Guangyan and {Han}, Feifei and {Gong}, Yanming and {Hao}, Xingming and {Zhang}, Guangpeng and {Zhang}, Pei and {Shan}, Qianjuan},
        title = "{Groundwater storage anomalies projection by optimized deep learning refines groundwater management in typical arid basins}",
      journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
     keywords = {GRACE-based groundwater storage anomalies, Multi-scale geographically weighted regression, Multi-strategy gray wolf optimization algorithm, Deep learning, Arid basins, Case study},
         year = 2025,
        month = mar,
       volume = {649},
          eid = {132452},
        pages = {132452},
     abstract = "{The GRACE satellite provides tools for accurately characterizing the
        spatiotemporal variations of regional groundwater storage
        anomalies (GWSA) under the background of climate change and
        anthropogenic disturbances. However, its low spatial resolution
        restricts the refined management of groundwater. Multi-scale
        geographically weighted regression (MGWR) residuals are
        innovatively introduced for bias correction, which improves the
        GRACE-based GWSA downscaling accuracy (average R<SUP
        loc=``post''>2</SUP> = 0.98). Further application of the K-means
        identifies four spatial distribution patterns of GWSA in the
        Tarim River mainstream (TRM), which showed a downward trend from
        2003 to 2020. However, under effective groundwater management
        (such as ecological water transfer, ecological gate water
        diversion, etc.), the decline rate is gradually decreasing.
        Feature contribution analysis demonstrates that soil moisture
        storage (SMS), land surface temperature (LST), and normalized
        difference vegetation index (NDVI) are the primary driving
        factors of GWSA changes. Using the long short-term memory (LSTM)
        deep learning model optimized by multi-strategy gray wolf
        optimization algorithm (MSGWO), the GWSA of four spatial
        patterns is predicted under two shared socioeconomic pathways
        (SSPs, including SSP245 and SSP585). The model achieved a
        maximum R/NSE of 0.95/0.91 on the train dataset and 0.88/0.71 on
        the test dataset, outperforming similar models. The future
        groundwater reserves of TRM will show an improving trend,
        indicating that groundwater management has achieved significant
        benefits. Notably, high emissions without government
        intervention (SSP585) have exacerbated the risk of groundwater
        resource shortages, and refined groundwater management needs to
        be further strengthened in the future. Overall, the proposed
        GRACE-based GWSA downscaling framework and MSGWO-LSTM predictive
        model provide tools for the refined scientific management of
        groundwater in arid basins.}",
          doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132452},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025JHyd..64932452D},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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