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Spatial and temporal runoff variability in response to climate change in alpine mountains

He, Bing, Chang, Jianxia, Guo, Aijun, Wang, Lu, Li, Zhehao, Zhai, Dingrong, and Gao, Fan, 2025. Spatial and temporal runoff variability in response to climate change in alpine mountains. Journal of Hydrology, 654:132779, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132779.

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@ARTICLE{2025JHyd..65432779H,
       author = {{He}, Bing and {Chang}, Jianxia and {Guo}, Aijun and {Wang}, Lu and {Li}, Zhehao and {Zhai}, Dingrong and {Gao}, Fan},
        title = "{Spatial and temporal runoff variability in response to climate change in alpine mountains}",
      journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
     keywords = {Climate change, Runoff components, SPHY Model, Alpine Mountains},
         year = 2025,
        month = jun,
       volume = {654},
          eid = {132779},
        pages = {132779},
     abstract = "{The sensitivity of snow and glacier melt processes in alpine mountains
        to climate change, along with the variations in snow and glacier
        distribution with elevation, can significantly affect runoff and
        its components. However, the influence of climate and elevation
        on runoff component changes remains unclear. This study employs
        the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model, incorporating a
        multi-stage calibration method for snowmelt, glacier melt, and
        confluence, using data from MODIS and GRACE satellites. The aim
        is to quantitatively analyze runoff components in the Tarim
        River Basin's four source streams and reveal the impacts of
        climate and elevation changes on runoff and its components.
        Results indicate that runoff in the four source streams is
        primarily recharged by snow and glacier meltwater at high
        elevations and rainfall at lower elevations. The Hotan and
        Yarkant Rivers are mainly glacier melt runoff, while the Aksu
        and Kaidu Rivers are mainly rainfall runoff. Runoff increasing
        for glacier melt-dominated rivers occurs at high elevations
        (3500{\textendash}5000 m) and ultra-high elevations (>5000 m),
        whereas runoff increases for rainfall-dominated rivers occurs at
        middle elevations (2000{\textendash}3500 m). Temperature and
        precipitation positively impact water resources in the four
        source streams. Specifically, a 10 \% temperature increase
        during summer results in a 7.2 \%, 6.5 \%, 4.7 \%, and 4.4 \%
        increase in total runoff, while a 10 \% precipitation increase
        causes a 2.7 \%, 3.8 \%, 5.0 \%, and 5.5 \% increase in runoff.
        Precipitation mainly affects the Aksu and Kaidu Rivers'
        discharge, whereas temperature mainly affects the Hotan and
        Yarkant Rivers. This study provides a reference for
        understanding hydrological processes in similar environments,
        which is crucial for researching alpine mountain hydrology under
        climate change.}",
          doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.132779},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025JHyd..65432779H},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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