Mon Oct 13, F. Flechtner
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Arciniega-Esparza, Saúl, Hernández-Espriú, José Antonio, Salinas-Calleros, Gabriel, Birkel, Christian, and Sanchez, Rosario, 2025. Assessing hydrological drought propagation through assimilation of GRACE for groundwater storage anomalies modelling in northeastern Mexico. Journal of Hydrology, 661:133826, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133826.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2025JHyd..66133826A,
author = {{Arciniega-Esparza}, Sa{\'u}l and {Hern{\'a}ndez-Espri{\'u}}, Jos{\'e} Antonio and {Salinas-Calleros}, Gabriel and {Birkel}, Christian and {Sanchez}, Rosario},
title = "{Assessing hydrological drought propagation through assimilation of GRACE for groundwater storage anomalies modelling in northeastern Mexico}",
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Drought propagation, GRACE, Groundwater storage, Hydrological modelling},
year = 2025,
month = nov,
volume = {661},
eid = {133826},
pages = {133826},
abstract = "{Groundwater is declining in many parts of the world, with arid and
semiarid regions being affected by meteorological droughts. The
process of how precipitation deficits affect other components of
the hydrological cycle is known as drought propagation and is
critical to understanding the effects of climate variability on
water availability. In this study, we analyze the propagation of
meteorological drought to groundwater storage from 2002 to 2022
in a portion of the shallow, unconfined Allende-Piedras Negras
aquifer in northeastern Mexico. We use a conceptual hydrological
model calibrated and validated using terrestrial water storage
anomalies (TWSa) derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE) mission, actual evapotranspiration (Et) and
soil moisture (SM) data from the Global Land Data Assimilation
System (GLDAS) v. 2.2 product. TWSa from GRACE was correlated
(correlation coefficient, CC > 0.9) with eight years of
groundwater head records in the aquifer, being a better
indicator of groundwater storage trends at the annual scale than
other global products that directly provide groundwater storage.
The proposed model satisfactorily reproduced the TWSa
(determination coefficient, R$^{2}$ {\ensuremath{\sim}} 0.56)
and Et (Kling-Gupta Efficiency, KGE {\ensuremath{\sim}} 0.64)
values with modest results in SM (CC {\ensuremath{\sim}} 0.61).
The drought propagation analysis shows that the aquifer is
climate-sensitive, where vertical groundwater recharge
represents {\ensuremath{\sim}}12 \% of the annual precipitation,
with recharge deficit duration exceeding periods of
precipitation deficits. Groundwater storage is in decline (‑0.4
mm/month), where the long-term decline is associated with
pumping rate and the largest changes are associated to the
combined effects of regional abstraction and the extraordinary
droughts of 2011{\textendash}2013 and 2019{\textendash}2022.
This study offers insights into addressing hydrological drought
propagation in semiarid regions and its impact on shallow
aquifers.}",
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133826},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025JHyd..66133826A},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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