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Anthropogenic processes and sea-level rise contributions with data assimilation of GRACE and GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage

Scheliga, Ann, Girotto, Manuela, and Gerlein-Safdi, Cynthia, 2025. Anthropogenic processes and sea-level rise contributions with data assimilation of GRACE and GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage. Journal of Hydrology, 663:134048, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134048.

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@ARTICLE{2025JHyd..66334048S,
       author = {{Scheliga}, Ann and {Girotto}, Manuela and {Gerlein-Safdi}, Cynthia},
        title = "{Anthropogenic processes and sea-level rise contributions with data assimilation of GRACE and GRACE-FO terrestrial water storage}",
      journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
     keywords = {GRACE TWS, Data assimilation, CLSM, Groundwater, Sea-level},
         year = 2025,
        month = dec,
       volume = {663},
          eid = {134048},
        pages = {134048},
     abstract = "{Sea level rise (SLR) is a critical consequence of climate change, driven
        primarily by glacial melt and ocean thermal expansion. However,
        long-term changes in land hydrology also contribute
        significantly, introducing inter-annual variability and
        uncertainty into SLR projections. This study evaluates the land
        hydrology contribution to SLR using three datasets: (1) Gravity
        Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations,
        (2) the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), and (3) a data
        assimilation product incorporating GRACE-derived terrestrial
        water storage (TWS) into CLSM. We analyze spatial variability,
        long-term trends, and the representation of anthropogenic
        processes, such as groundwater depletion and reservoir
        construction. While CLSM alone underestimates global TWS loss,
        data assimilation improves trend representation, particularly
        for drying regions. Despite these improvements, data
        assimilation does not fully capture GRACE-derived SLR
        contributions, constrained by model limitations in assimilating
        large negative trends. Over 2003{\textendash}2020, GRACE data
        suggest a land hydrology contribution of +0.76
        {\ensuremath{\pm}} 0.03 mm SLR/year, while data assimilation
        yields +0.27 {\ensuremath{\pm}} 0.03 mm SLR/year. Analysis of
        major anthropogenic processes reveals that groundwater depletion
        and glacial melt contribute significantly to TWS trends. The
        study highlights the strengths and limitations of using data
        assimilation to enhance land hydrology representations in
        climate models. As the GRACE record extends, further refinements
        are needed to address model constraints on long-term drying
        trends. These findings are essential for improving regional
        hydrological modeling and refining global SLR projections in
        response to climate and human-driven water storage changes.}",
          doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134048},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025JHyd..66334048S},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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