Publications related to the GRACE Missions (no abstracts)

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Mechanisms Driving Recent Sea-Level Acceleration in the Gulf of Guinea

Akeem Shola, Ayinde, Yu, Huaming, Wu, Kejian, and Krakauer, Nir, 2025. Mechanisms Driving Recent Sea-Level Acceleration in the Gulf of Guinea. Remote Sensing, 17(16):2834, doi:10.3390/rs17162834.

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@ARTICLE{2025RemS...17.2834A,
       author = {{Akeem Shola}, Ayinde and {Yu}, Huaming and {Wu}, Kejian and {Krakauer}, Nir},
        title = "{Mechanisms Driving Recent Sea-Level Acceleration in the Gulf of Guinea}",
      journal = {Remote Sensing},
     keywords = {sea-level rise, Gulf of Guinea, ocean mass redistribution, terrestrial hydrology, climate teleconnections},
         year = 2025,
        month = aug,
       volume = {17},
       number = {16},
          eid = {2834},
        pages = {2834},
     abstract = "{The Gulf of Guinea is undergoing accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), with
        localized rates surpassing 10 mm yr$^{‑1}$, more than double the
        global mean. Integrating GRACE/FO ocean mass data, reanalysis
        products, and machine learning, we identify a regime shift in
        the regional sea-level budget post-2015. Over 60\% of observed
        SLR near major riverine outlets stems from ocean mass increase,
        driven primarily by intensified terrestrial hydrological
        discharge, marking a transition from steric to barystatic and
        manometric dominance. This shift coincides with enhanced
        monsoonal precipitation, wind-forced equatorial wave
        adjustments, and Atlantic{\textendash}Pacific climate coupling.
        Piecewise regression reveals a significant 2015 breakpoint, with
        mean coastal SLR rates increasing from 2.93 {\ensuremath{\pm}}
        0.1 to 5.4 {\ensuremath{\pm}} 0.25 mm yr$^{‑1}$ between 1993 and
        2014, and 2015 and 2023. GRACE data indicate extreme mass
        accumulation (>10 mm yr$^{‑1}$) along the eastern Gulf coast,
        tied to elevated river discharge and estuarine retention.
        Dynamical analysis reveals the reorganization of wind field
        intensification, which modifies Rossby wave dispersion and
        amplifies zonal water mass convergence. Random forest modeling
        attributes 16\% of extreme SLR variance to terrestrial runoff
        (comparable to wind stress at 19\%), underscoring underestimated
        land{\textendash}ocean interactions. Current climate models
        underrepresent manometric contributions by 20{\textendash}45\%,
        introducing critical projection biases for high-runoff regions.
        The societal implications are severe, with >400 km$^{2}$ of
        urban land in Lagos and Abidjan vulnerable to inundation by
        2050. These findings reveal a hybrid
        steric{\textendash}manometric regime in the Gulf of Guinea,
        challenging existing paradigms and suggesting analogous dynamics
        may operate across tropical margins. This calls for urgent model
        recalibration and tailored regional adaptation strategies.}",
          doi = {10.3390/rs17162834},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2025RemS...17.2834A},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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