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ENSO–influenced Mekong plume extension revealed by causality between estuarine water level and GRACE–derived oceanic height

Fok, Hok Sum and Ma, Zhongtian, 2026. ENSO–influenced Mekong plume extension revealed by causality between estuarine water level and GRACE–derived oceanic height. Advances in Space Research, 77(6):6675–6691, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2026.01.020.

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@ARTICLE{2026AdSpR..77.6675F,
       author = {{Fok}, Hok Sum and {Ma}, Zhongtian},
        title = "{ENSO-influenced Mekong plume extension revealed by causality between estuarine water level and GRACE-derived oceanic height}",
      journal = {Advances in Space Research},
     keywords = {River plume extension, Causality tests, ENSO, Satellite gravimetry},
         year = 2026,
        month = mar,
       volume = {77},
       number = {6},
        pages = {6675-6691},
     abstract = "{Understanding river plume extension is essential for resolving
        freshwater connectivity and biogeochemical fluxes in the open
        ocean. However, it remains poorly understood due to the limited
        detectable transport ranges of isotope measurements, numerical
        models, and satellite methods. Rather than cross-correlating
        runoff with GRACE-derived oceanic equivalent water height (OEWH)
        as in previous studies, this study cross-correlates estuarine
        water level{\textemdash}served as a runoff
        proxy{\textemdash}GRACE-derived OEWH/Ocean bottom pressure.
        Granger and Liang causality tests are further applied to examine
        whether estuarine output potentially drives the GRACE-derived
        oceanic height changes, thereby validating the inferred
        spatiotemporal extent of far-field plume transport across the
        Sunda Shelf Sea (SSS) and South China Sea (SCS). Isolating
        interannual variability via multi-wavelet analyses, we found
        that while La Ni{\~n}a tends to enhance offshore extension
        across SSS and SCS, alternating El Ni{\~n}o-La Ni{\~n}a phases
        stagnate transport in central SSS. Comparison with isotope-
        estimated plume ages confirms the method's potential
        applicability. Notably, the inferred Mekong plume might extend
        to {\ensuremath{\sim}}18{\textdegree}N in SCS that represents an
        exceptionally long range of the plume transport. These findings
        provide a potential alternative for determining extended plume
        transport duration patterns and highlight the role of climate
        variability in reshaping estuary-to-shelf transport.}",
          doi = {10.1016/j.asr.2026.01.020},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026AdSpR..77.6675F},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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