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Fok, Hok Sum and Ma, Zhongtian, 2026. ENSO–influenced Mekong plume extension revealed by causality between estuarine water level and GRACE–derived oceanic height. Advances in Space Research, 77(6):6675–6691, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2026.01.020.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2026AdSpR..77.6675F,
author = {{Fok}, Hok Sum and {Ma}, Zhongtian},
title = "{ENSO-influenced Mekong plume extension revealed by causality between estuarine water level and GRACE-derived oceanic height}",
journal = {Advances in Space Research},
keywords = {River plume extension, Causality tests, ENSO, Satellite gravimetry},
year = 2026,
month = mar,
volume = {77},
number = {6},
pages = {6675-6691},
abstract = "{Understanding river plume extension is essential for resolving
freshwater connectivity and biogeochemical fluxes in the open
ocean. However, it remains poorly understood due to the limited
detectable transport ranges of isotope measurements, numerical
models, and satellite methods. Rather than cross-correlating
runoff with GRACE-derived oceanic equivalent water height (OEWH)
as in previous studies, this study cross-correlates estuarine
water level{\textemdash}served as a runoff
proxy{\textemdash}GRACE-derived OEWH/Ocean bottom pressure.
Granger and Liang causality tests are further applied to examine
whether estuarine output potentially drives the GRACE-derived
oceanic height changes, thereby validating the inferred
spatiotemporal extent of far-field plume transport across the
Sunda Shelf Sea (SSS) and South China Sea (SCS). Isolating
interannual variability via multi-wavelet analyses, we found
that while La Ni{\~n}a tends to enhance offshore extension
across SSS and SCS, alternating El Ni{\~n}o-La Ni{\~n}a phases
stagnate transport in central SSS. Comparison with isotope-
estimated plume ages confirms the method's potential
applicability. Notably, the inferred Mekong plume might extend
to {\ensuremath{\sim}}18{\textdegree}N in SCS that represents an
exceptionally long range of the plume transport. These findings
provide a potential alternative for determining extended plume
transport duration patterns and highlight the role of climate
variability in reshaping estuary-to-shelf transport.}",
doi = {10.1016/j.asr.2026.01.020},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026AdSpR..77.6675F},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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