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Scherf, Manuel, Krauss, Sandro, Tsurikov, Grigory, Strasser, Andreas, Shematovich, Valery, Bisikalo, Dmitry, Lammer, Helmut, Güdel, Manuel, and Möstl, Christian, 2026. The impact of electron precipitation on Earth's thermospheric NO production and the drag of LEO satellites. Annales Geophysicae, 44(1):209–225, doi:10.5194/angeo-44-209-2026.
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@ARTICLE{2026AnGeo..44..209S,
author = {{Scherf}, Manuel and {Krauss}, Sandro and {Tsurikov}, Grigory and {Strasser}, Andreas and {Shematovich}, Valery and {Bisikalo}, Dmitry and {Lammer}, Helmut and {G{\"u}del}, Manuel and {M{\"o}stl}, Christian},
title = "{The impact of electron precipitation on Earth's thermospheric NO production and the drag of LEO satellites}",
journal = {Annales Geophysicae},
keywords = {Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Space Physics},
year = 2026,
month = mar,
volume = {44},
number = {1},
pages = {209-225},
abstract = "{We investigate the response of space weather events on Earth's upper
atmosphere over the polar regions by studying their effect on
the drag of the CHAMP and GRACE satellites. Increasing solar
activity that results in heating and the expansion of the upper
atmosphere threatens low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Auroral
events are closely related to the stellar energy deposition of
solar EUV radiation and precipitating energetic electrons, which
influence photochemical processes such as the production of
nitric oxide (NO) in the upper atmosphere. To study the
production of NO molecules and their influence on the
thermospheric structure and satellite drag, we first model
Earth's background thermosphere structure with the 1D upper
atmosphere model Kompot by considering the incident X-ray, EUV,
and IR radiation during selected space weather events. For
investigating the effect of electron precipitation in the
production of NO molecules in the polar thermosphere, we apply a
Monte Carlo model that takes into account the stochastic nature
of collisional scattering of auroral electrons in collisions
with the surrounding N$_{2}$-O$_{2}$ atmosphere, including the
production of suprathermal N atoms. The observed effect of the
atmospheric drag on the CHAMP and GRACE spacecraft during the
two studied events indicates that a sporadic enhancement of NO
molecule production in the polar thermosphere and its IR-cooling
capability, which counteracts thermospheric expansion and can
lead to an ``overcooling'' with decreased density after the
space weather event, can have a protective effect on LEO
satellites. Their production efficiency, however, is highly
dependent on the energy flux of the precipitating electrons. Our
results have direct implications for empirical satellite orbit
prediction models, as our simulations highlight the need to
consider precipitation-induced NO production to improve the
predictive power of these models.}",
doi = {10.5194/angeo-44-209-2026},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
eprint = {2602.18595},
primaryClass = {astro-ph.EP},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026AnGeo..44..209S},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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