Publications related to the GRACE Missions (no abstracts)

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Integrating Meteorological and GRACE–Based Indices to Assess Groundwater Drought Under Climate Change in Data–Scarce Mediterranean Basins

Nawaz, Ayesha, Alfio, Maria Rosaria, Casarci, Maurizio, DanieleFiorese, Gaetano, Hoteit, Hussein, and Balacco, Gabriella, 2026. Integrating Meteorological and GRACE–Based Indices to Assess Groundwater Drought Under Climate Change in Data–Scarce Mediterranean Basins. Earth Systems and Environment, .

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@ARTICLE{2026ESE...tmp...83N,
       author = {{Nawaz}, Ayesha and {Alfio}, Maria Rosaria and {Casarci}, Maurizio and {DanieleFiorese}, Gaetano and {Hoteit}, Hussein and {Balacco}, Gabriella},
        title = "{Integrating Meteorological and GRACE-Based Indices to Assess Groundwater Drought Under Climate Change in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Basins}",
      journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
     keywords = {Precipitation, Temperature, SPI, SPEI, GRACE, Future projection},
         year = 2026,
        month = feb,
     abstract = "{Groundwater is a vital resource for socio-economic sustainability ye is
        increasingly threatened by climate change and rising
        anthropogenic pressures. Lebanon, and particularly the Al Assi
        River Basin (ARB), experiences recurrent droughts, but limited
        meteorological and groundwater observations hinder effective
        water resources monitoring and management. This study employs
        satellite-derived datasets to investigate the relationship
        between hydrological and hydrogeological drought indicators
        across Lebanon, with emphasis on the ARB. The Standardized
        Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation and
        Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were computed from CHIRPS
        precipitation and CHIRTS-ERA5 temperature data at multiple
        accumulation periods. Groundwater drought was quantified using
        the Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI), derived from GRACE
        terrestrial water storage anomalies. SPI, SPEI, and GGDI were
        harmonized at a 10 km resolution, and correlation analyses,
        including lagged correlations, were conducted to examine their
        temporal relationship. Results show that SPEI at 18-month
        accumulation exhibits the highest correlation with GGDI (R
        {\ensuremath{\approx}} 0.70) at zero lag, reflecting the
        response of the multi-layered ARB aquifer system. Future SPEI
        projections were derived using bias-corrected outputs from the
        CNRM-ALADIN53 regional climate model under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
        scenarios. Using the regression model resulting from the
        strongest correlation, future GGDI projections were generated,
        highlighting a progressive increase in drought-affected areas,
        with the most severe groundwater deficits expected under RCP 8.5
        by the late 21st century. These findings underscore the need for
        integrated water-resource management that combines climate-
        informed planning, satellite-based monitoring, and strengthened
        in-situ hydrogeological networks to improve resilience to future
        climatic extremes in data-scarce regions.}",
          doi = {10.1007/s41748-026-01085-8},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026ESE...tmp...83N},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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