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Beyond GRACE: Evaluating the benefits of NGGM and MAGIC for precipitation estimation over Europe

Liaqat, Muhammad Usman, Camici, Stefania, Leopardi, Francesco, Gaona, Jaime, and Brocca, Luca, 2026. Beyond GRACE: Evaluating the benefits of NGGM and MAGIC for precipitation estimation over Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 30(15):4969–4983, doi:10.5194/hess-30-4969-2026.

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@ARTICLE{2026HESS...30.4969L,
       author = {{Liaqat}, Muhammad Usman and {Camici}, Stefania and {Leopardi}, Francesco and {Gaona}, Jaime and {Brocca}, Luca},
        title = "{Beyond GRACE: Evaluating the benefits of NGGM and MAGIC for precipitation estimation over Europe}",
      journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
         year = 2026,
        month = aug,
       volume = {30},
       number = {15},
        pages = {4969-4983},
     abstract = "{The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-On
        (GRACE-FO) missions provide observations of terrestrial water
        storage (TWS) dynamics from regional to global scales. However,
        their coarse spatio-temporal resolution limits the applicability
        in many hydrological studies. A joint collaboration between the
        National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the
        European Space Agency (ESA), known as the Mass Change And
        Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC), aims to launch
        a new paired mission, i.e., GRACE-C and NGGM (Next Generation
        Gravity Mission), to improve the monitoring of extreme events
        such as floods and droughts. The primary objective of this study
        is to examine the impact of the expected improvement in the
        spatial-temporal resolution and accuracy of NGGM and MAGIC on
        precipitation estimation by developing multiple synthetic
        experiments over Europe. The study employed the well-known
        SM2RAIN algorithm to estimate the precipitation accumulated
        between two consecutive TWS measurements. The total amount of
        water in the soil from the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis for
        the land (ERA5L) is used as a proxy of TWS over the period
        2003─2012, while ERA5L precipitation serves as a reference
        dataset. The results showed that SM2RAIN exhibited satisfactory
        performance at a daily temporal resolution, with a mean
        correlation coefficient of 0.86. Good agreement was obtained
        across most of Europe except in some areas of northern Italy,
        northeastern Europe (Estonia, Latvia) and some coastal regions.
        Synthetic experiments were developed by degrading the temporal
        resolution (5─10, 15, and 30 d) and by adding Gaussian errors to
        TWS data ranging from 1 to 40 mm. The results showed robust
        performance under moderate temporal degradation (5─10 d) and low
        measurement errors ( 5 mm), with correlations generally
        exceeding 0.75. However, performance deteriorates significantly
        when errors exceed 10─20 mm, with correlations dropping below
        0.40 for an error of 42 mm. These findings identify critical
        design thresholds for NGGM/MAGIC missions, demonstrating that
        achieving a measurement accuracy better than 5─10 mm is crucial
        for reliable precipitation estimation across diverse European
        hydroclimatic conditions.}",
          doi = {10.5194/hess-30-4969-2026},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026HESS...30.4969L},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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