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Anatomy of Interannual to Decadal Sea Level Changes in the GECCO3 Ocean Synthesis

Stammer, D., Köhl, A., and Ponte, R. M., 2026. Anatomy of Interannual to Decadal Sea Level Changes in the GECCO3 Ocean Synthesis. Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), 131(9):e2026JC024340, doi:10.1029/2026JC024340.

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BibTeX

@ARTICLE{2026JGRC..13124340S,
       author = {{Stammer}, D. and {K{\"o}hl}, A. and {Ponte}, R.~M.},
        title = "{Anatomy of Interannual to Decadal Sea Level Changes in the GECCO3 Ocean Synthesis}",
      journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans)},
     keywords = {sea level decomposition, bottom pressure, steric sea level, ocean data state estimation, climate modeling, deep ocean circulation},
         year = 2026,
        month = sep,
       volume = {131},
       number = {9},
          eid = {e2026JC024340},
        pages = {e2026JC024340},
     abstract = "{The GECCO3 synthesis is used to infer a dynamically consistent
        decomposition of sea level changes (variability and trends) on
        interannual to decadal time scales. Over most parts of the
        global ocean equatorward of 60{\textdegree} latitude, sea level
        variability and trends can be explained almost completely by the
        upper ocean (above 2,000 m) steric component alone. On decadal
        and longer time scales, we find strong but negative relations
        between the deep steric component (below 2,000 m) and the
        manometric changes. Such a relation, albeit weaker, can also be
        identified on annual to decadal timescales in the MPI--ESM
        climate model. Sea level variability over all shallow shelf
        regions (water depth <500 m) and some fraction of the Southern
        Ocean appear to be dominated by manometric changes. Enhanced but
        short spatial scale manometric contributions exist also in
        boundary current regions, such as the North Atlantic or the
        Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. Our findings suggest that
        without a full depth steric sea level information available,
        observed sea level change on decadal and longer time scales
        might best be explained by just using the steric estimate
        available from the top 2,000 m depth as provided by Argo. Adding
        additionally information from the GRACE bottom pressure fields
        without knowing the deep steric changes will likely degrade the
        decomposition of sea level in many regions of the world ocean.
        We encountered large differences between the GECCO3 reanalysis
        manometric component and what the GRACE project provides,
        suggesting remaining uncertainties to exist in the GRACE ocean
        products and/or GECCO3 fields.}",
          doi = {10.1029/2026JC024340},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026JGRC..13124340S},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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