Mon Dec 15, F. Flechtner
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Zhang, Yang, Bao, Zhenxin, Wang, Jie, and Meng, Xianhong, 2026. Climate warming shortens the propagation time from meteorological drought to groundwater drought over 1960--2100. Journal of Hydrology, 664:134429, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134429.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2026JHyd..66434429Z,
author = {{Zhang}, Yang and {Bao}, Zhenxin and {Wang}, Jie and {Meng}, Xianhong},
title = "{Climate warming shortens the propagation time from meteorological drought to groundwater drought over 1960--2100}",
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Drought propagation time, Meteorological drought, Groundwater drought, Controlling factors, Climate warming},
year = 2026,
month = jan,
volume = {664},
eid = {134429},
pages = {134429},
abstract = "{Comprehensive understanding of the propagation of meteorological drought
into groundwater drought and its influencing factors is
essential for sustainable groundwater resource management in
hilly regions under a warming climate. However, the influence
pathways through which climatic and hydrological variables
affect propagation time remains insufficiently understood.
Therefore, theGanjiang River Basin, a representative catchment
characterized by mountainous and hilly terrain, was selected as
the study area. First, we simulated aquifer groundwater storage
data using the VIC-SIMGM model with observed data and CMIP6
projections, validating results against GRACE and water level
data. Then, the characteristics of meteorological and
groundwater droughts were analyzed and compared for the
historical period (1960─2019, P1) and the future period
(2020─2100, P2). Groundwater droughts occurred less frequently
than meteorological droughts but were longer and more severe.
This disparity is projected to intensify as the climate warms.
Moreover, propagation times was assessed using the time lag-
based method, including the time lags between the center (<mml:m
ath><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow>
<mml:mi>center</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math>), onset
(<mml:math><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mm
l:mrow><mml:mi>onset</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math>),
and end (<mml:math><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:
mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>end</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:m
ath>) of the two drought types. Results showed that <mml:math><m
ml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:m
i>center</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math> decreased
from 5.11 months in P1 to 4.39 months in P2, <mml:math><mml:msub
><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>onset
</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math> declined from 3.71
months to 1.42 months, <mml:math><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT<
/mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>end</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mm
l:msub></mml:math> increased from 4.14 months to 6.26 months.
The temporal variability of propagation time was then attributed
using structural equation model, which revealed significant
influences from evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater storage
anomalies (GWSA) driven by climate warming. The rise in
temperature leads to higher ET, which directly increases water
consumption during drought propagation, thereby shortening <mml:
math><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:mrow
><mml:mi>center</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math> and <m
ml:math><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:mrow><mml:m
row><mml:mi>onset</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math>.
Furthermore, larger groundwater deficits caused by increased ET
prolong <mml:math><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mi>PT</mml:mi></mml:m
row><mml:mrow><mml:mi>end</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:ma
th>. This study provides insights into the temporal evolution of
drought propagation times and the underlying mechanisms,
contributing to a deeper understanding of drought propagation
process.}",
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134429},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026JHyd..66434429Z},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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