Fri Apr 10, F. Flechtner
• Sorted by Date • Sorted by Last Name of First Author •
Sun, Jianchong, Hu, Litang, Zhang, Junchao, and Wang, Pei, 2026. Decoding human–climate interactions in China's water–stressed aquifers: mechanistic modeling approach. Journal of Hydrology, 669:135117, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135117.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2026JHyd..66935117S,
author = {{Sun}, Jianchong and {Hu}, Litang and {Zhang}, Junchao and {Wang}, Pei},
title = "{Decoding human-climate interactions in China's water-stressed aquifers: mechanistic modeling approach}",
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
keywords = {Groundwater level change, Integrated groundwater flow modeling, Climate change, Anthropogenic activities, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region},
year = 2026,
month = apr,
volume = {669},
eid = {135117},
pages = {135117},
abstract = "{Groundwater systems, functioning as the pivotal nexus for socio-
ecological-economic systems, are experiencing increasingly
complex reconfigurations of recharge-discharge dynamics under
the dual pressures of climate change and anthropogenic
activities. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) plain, a globally
recognized groundwater stress hotspot, managed recharge
initiatives have partially mitigated aquifer depletion. However,
the intricate interplay between climate variability and human
activities continues to pose significant management challenges.
This study developed an integrated groundwater modeling
framework that combines in-situ monitoring and Gravity Recovery
and Climate Experiment (GRACE/GFO) satellite observations to
analyze the historical evolution of the BTH aquifer (Phase I:
2003─2015; Phase II: 2016─2020). It clarified the relationships
between GRACE/GFO-derived storage changes and shallow/deep
groundwater and projected groundwater storage trajectories
(2021─2050) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), building
on current ecological replenishment policies. The findings
revealed that shallow aquifers were the primary drivers of
regional groundwater depletion (2003─2020), with an average
annual storage decline rate of 1.45 billion m$^{3}$ yr$^{─1}$,
despite emerging recovery signals during 2016─2020. GRACE/GFO-
derived groundwater storage data exhibited closer agreement with
simulated shallow-aquifer fluxes compared to deep aquifers in
process-based models. Ecological water replenishment accelerated
groundwater storage recovery across all SSPs scenarios,
irrespective of pumping reductions. The efficacy of recharge
demonstrated climate resilience across various SSPs scenarios
(2021─2050), with comparable magnitudes of 11.3\%─27.5\%,
12.2\%─29.9\%, and 9.6\%─23.8\% for SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and
SSP5-8.5, respectively. These results established robust
mechanistic linkages between surface interventions and aquifer
responses, offering quantitative baselines for adaptive
management strategies in highly stressed aquifer systems.}",
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135117},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026JHyd..66935117S},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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Fri Apr 10, F. Flechtner