Fri Apr 10, F. Flechtner
• Sorted by Date • Sorted by Last Name of First Author •
Dharpure, Jaydeo K., Howat, Ian M., and Patel, Akansha, 2026. Future projections of glacier mass change in High Mountain Asia using GRACE and climatemodel data. Scientific Reports, 16(1):8785, doi:10.1038/s41598-026-39404-8.
• from the NASA Astrophysics Data System • by the DOI System •
@ARTICLE{2026NatSR..16.8785D,
author = {{Dharpure}, Jaydeo K. and {Howat}, Ian M. and {Patel}, Akansha},
title = "{Future projections of glacier mass change in High Mountain Asia using GRACE and climatemodel data}",
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {Climate change, Glacier mass change, GRACE satellites, Predictions, Earth Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience},
year = 2026,
month = feb,
volume = {16},
number = {1},
eid = {8785},
pages = {8785},
abstract = "{High Mountain Asia (HMA) is a critical region for global water
resources, where glacier monitoring, modeling, and prediction
are essential to understanding the impacts of climate change on
water availability and related hazards. This study examined
glacier mass change in HMA using terrestrial water storage
anomaly data from gravity recovery and climate experiment
(GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On. Our results reveal significant
glacier mass loss of {\ensuremath{-}} 13.9 {\ensuremath{\pm}}
3.6 Gt/yr between 2002/03 and 2022/23, with pronounced spatial
variability across subregions. Eastern Kunlun shows the highest
mass gain (1.1 {\ensuremath{\pm}} 0.2 Gt/yr), while the West
Tien Shan experiences the most rapid mass loss (─1.9
{\ensuremath{\pm}} 0.4 Gt/yr). For future projections, we
employed a generalized additive model driven by climate and
radiative flux variables from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model
Intercomparison Project under low- (SSP126) and high-emission
(SSP585) scenarios. The results indicate continued glacier mass
decline, with the steepest reductions under SSP585
({\ensuremath{-}} 19.5 {\ensuremath{\pm}} 11.3 Gt/yr) compared
to SSP126 ({\ensuremath{-}} 2.3 {\ensuremath{\pm}} 0.3 Gt/yr).
These changes occurred due to variation in climatic and
radiative fluxes in both past and future projections. Overall,
our study enhances understanding of cryospheric change in HMA,
providing critical insights for future research, climate
adaptation, and water resource management.}",
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-39404-8},
adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026NatSR..16.8785D},
adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}
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