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Asynchronous Responses of Ecosystem Carbon Gain and Groundwater Storage Under Ecological Restoration in the Loess Plateau

Ma, Yifei, Wu, Qiaoli, Chen, Shaoyuan, Song, Jinling, and Jiang, Jie, 2026. Asynchronous Responses of Ecosystem Carbon Gain and Groundwater Storage Under Ecological Restoration in the Loess Plateau. Remote Sensing, 18(16):2822, doi:10.3390/rs18162822.

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@ARTICLE{2026RemS...18.2822M,
       author = {{Ma}, Yifei and {Wu}, Qiaoli and {Chen}, Shaoyuan and {Song}, Jinling and {Jiang}, Jie},
        title = "{Asynchronous Responses of Ecosystem Carbon Gain and Groundwater Storage Under Ecological Restoration in the Loess Plateau}",
      journal = {Remote Sensing},
     keywords = {Loess Plateau, ecological restoration, ecosystem carbon gain, evapotranspiration, water-use efficiency, groundwater storage anomaly, asynchronous response},
         year = 2026,
        month = aug,
       volume = {18},
       number = {16},
          eid = {2822},
        pages = {2822},
     abstract = "{What are the main findings? During 2002--2023, GPP increased
        substantially faster than ET, with relative growth rates of
        1.66\% and 0.47\%, respectively, resulting in a significant
        increase in WUE. XGBoost--SHAP analysis showed that LAI had the
        strongest model-based association with GPP and WUE, whereas ET
        was jointly associated with LAI, air temperature, and
        precipitation. Middle- and deep-layer soil moisture showed an
        increasing tendency during 2016--2023, whereas regional
        groundwater storage declined markedly during 2002--2020 and
        showed only a short-term, nonsignificant increase during 2020--
        2023. During 2002--2023, GPP increased substantially faster than
        ET, with relative growth rates of 1.66\% and 0.47\%,
        respectively, resulting in a significant increase in WUE.
        XGBoost--SHAP analysis showed that LAI had the strongest model-
        based association with GPP and WUE, whereas ET was jointly
        associated with LAI, air temperature, and precipitation. Middle-
        and deep-layer soil moisture showed an increasing tendency
        during 2016--2023, whereas regional groundwater storage declined
        markedly during 2002--2020 and showed only a short-term,
        nonsignificant increase during 2020--2023. What are the
        implications of the main findings? Ecological restoration was
        accompanied by increased ecosystem carbon gain and WUE without a
        proportional increase in annual ET, while improvements in
        surface carbon--water conditions did not translate into
        synchronous groundwater recovery. Integrating multi-source
        remote sensing, land-surface assimilation, GRACE/GRACE-FO, and
        human water-use datasets provides useful evidence for optimizing
        ecological restoration and groundwater management. Ecological
        restoration was accompanied by increased ecosystem carbon gain
        and WUE without a proportional increase in annual ET, while
        improvements in surface carbon--water conditions did not
        translate into synchronous groundwater recovery. Integrating
        multi-source remote sensing, land-surface assimilation,
        GRACE/GRACE-FO, and human water-use datasets provides useful
        evidence for optimizing ecological restoration and groundwater
        management. Since the implementation of the Grain-for-Green
        Program (GGP), vegetation across the Loess Plateau (LP) has
        substantially recovered. However, whether the associated
        increase in ecosystem carbon gain was accompanied by a
        proportional increase in water consumption and whether
        groundwater storage changed synchronously remain unclear. This
        study integrated multi-source remote sensing products, GLDAS-
        Noah land-surface assimilation data, GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite
        gravimetry, irrigation water-use data, provincial water-use
        statistics, and coal-resource information to examine long-term
        changes in gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration
        (ET), water-use efficiency (WUE), soil moisture (SM), and
        groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) during 2002--2023. GPP
        increased significantly by 10.67 g C m$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ (p0.01),
        whereas ET increased more modestly by 1.97 mm yr$^{-1}$ (p0.05).
        The relative growth rate of GPP (1.66\%) was approximately 3.5
        times that of ET (0.47\%), and WUE increased by 0.018 g C
        m$^{-2}$ mm$^{-1}$ yr$^{-1}$ (p0.01). In the XGBoost--SHAP
        models for 2004--2019, LAI showed the strongest model-based
        association with GPP and WUE, whereas ET was associated more
        broadly with LAI, air temperature, and precipitation. SM
        declined during 2002--2015 but showed an increasing tendency
        during 2016--2023, particularly in the middle and deep layers.
        The long-term GWSA slopes derived from CSR and JPL were -8.707
        and -9.505 mm yr$^{-1}$, respectively, and the averaged CSR--JPL
        GWSA series showed a Sen's slope of -9.131 mm yr$^{-1}$. GWSA
        declined during 2002--2020 and showed only a short-term,
        nonsignificant increase during 2020--2023 (4.110 mm yr$^{-1}$,
        p>0.05). These contrasting trajectories indicate that increases
        in surface carbon uptake and improvements in soil-water
        conditions were not accompanied by synchronous regional
        groundwater recovery. Overall, the ecological-restoration period
        was accompanied by increased carbon gain and WUE without a
        proportional increase in regional ET, while groundwater storage
        followed a distinct trajectory. These findings provide regional-
        scale evidence and a quantitative basis for coordinating
        sustainable water-resource management with ecological-
        restoration optimization on the LP.}",
          doi = {10.3390/rs18162822},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026RemS...18.2822M},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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