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Drivers of Water Resource Changes Over the Mediterranean Climate Regions of the Northern Hemisphere

Senigalliesi, V., Cherchi, A., Gelsinari, S., and Alessandri, A., 2026. Drivers of Water Resource Changes Over the Mediterranean Climate Regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Earth's Future, 14(7):e2026EF008223, doi:10.1029/2026EF008223.

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@ARTICLE{2026EaFut..1408223S,
       author = {{Senigalliesi}, V. and {Cherchi}, A. and {Gelsinari}, S. and {Alessandri}, A.},
        title = "{Drivers of Water Resource Changes Over the Mediterranean Climate Regions of the Northern Hemisphere}",
      journal = {Earth's Future},
     keywords = {Mediterranean climate regions, GRACE/GRACE-FO, total water storage, water availability decline, climate change impacts},
         year = 2026,
        month = jul,
       volume = {14},
       number = {7},
          eid = {e2026EF008223},
        pages = {e2026EF008223},
     abstract = "{Mediterranean Climate Regions (MCRs) are water-limited areas highly
        sensitive to global warming and hydroclimatic change. However,
        long-term declines and interannual variability in water
        availability, as well as their climate drivers, remain poorly
        understood. This study exploits the GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite
        observations of Total Water Storage (TWS) spanning 2002─2023 to
        investigate TWS variability and its drivers in the Euro-
        Mediterranean (Euromed) and the Western United States (WUS)
        MCRs. We apply a multiple linear regression (MLR) model on
        temperature, total precipitation and two metrics capturing
        complementary precipitation features: Intensity (above 95th
        Percentile; IPA95P) and Intermittency of storms above 5 mm
        (MDDA5). The MLR model explains 64\% of observed TWS variability
        across Northern Hemisphere MCRs. While temperature and
        precipitation are the primary drivers of the explained TWS
        variance (contributing to 37\% and 36\%, respectively), IPA95P
        and MDDA5 explain a smaller yet non-negligible fraction (up to
        15\%), with their effects concentrated in specific regions.
        Precipitation primarily drives interannual TWS variability,
        whereas increasing temperature governs the long-term decline.
        Temperature-driven TWS loss rates reach up to
        {\ensuremath{-}}1.2 mm/year in Euromed and {\ensuremath{-}}0.9
        mm/year in WUS, corresponding to TWS sensitivities per degree of
        warming of up to {\ensuremath{-}}25 mm/{\textdegree}C in North
        Africa, {\ensuremath{-}}34 mm/{\textdegree}C in East Euromed and
        {\ensuremath{-}}36 mm/{\textdegree}C in South WUS. Under the
        intermediate SSP2-4.5 scenario, projected TWS declines by 2100
        reach {\ensuremath{-}}60 mm in North Africa, {\ensuremath{-}}84
        mm in East Euromed, and {\ensuremath{-}}94 mm in South WUS
        relative to the 1995─2014. These results reveal critical
        vulnerabilities in MCRs, where warming-induced drying may
        exacerbate transitions toward a more arid climate.}",
          doi = {10.1029/2026EF008223},
       adsurl = {https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026EaFut..1408223S},
      adsnote = {Provided by the SAO/NASA Astrophysics Data System}
}

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